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Villefranche vs Rouen Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:45

Villefranche

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLL ·

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rouen

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-111.5%0-27.4%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.1%1-113.0%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.7%2-17.3%2-24.7%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.1%3-12.7%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 32.3% 3.10 -3.6%

Draw 26.7% 31.3% 3.20 -8.7%

Away win 42.2% 46.5% 2.15 -9.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 48.8% 2.05 +3.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.0% 3.70 +3.7%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 31.1% 34.5% 2.90 -9.8%

Away O1.5 36.6% 45.5% 2.20 -19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 11%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.7%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1 11.5%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villefranche1.1

Rouen1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLEFRANCHE · PPG 1.82

ROUEN · PPG 1.82

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.16, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Villefranche (H) 31.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.6%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.7%

Rouen (A) 42.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villefranche face Rouen in France - Ligue 3 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villefranche a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Rouen 42%, so Rouen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Villefranche and 1.3 for Rouen (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villefranche are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.82 for Rouen. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Villefranche vs Rouen Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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