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Quevilly vs Fleury 91 Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:45

Quevilly

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLW ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Fleury 91

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-113.0%0-27.2%0-32.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.0%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.2%2-17.0%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.2%3-12.4%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 35.1% 2.85 +0.9%

Draw 28.3% 33.9% 2.95 -9.9%

Away win 36.3% 40.8% 2.45 -11.1%

Over 2.5 43.1% 46.5% 2.15 -7.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% 26.0% 3.85 -12.2%

BTTS 48.2% 55.6% 1.80 -13.2%

Home O1.5 30.9% 36.4% 2.75 -15.0%

Away O1.5 33.0% 40.8% 2.45 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 11%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.2%

D 28% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 0–1 13.0%

#5 2–1✓ 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quevilly1.0

Fleury 911.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

QUEVILLY · PPG 1.18

FLEURY 91 · PPG 1.48

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.08, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Quevilly (H) 35.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +0.9%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -9.9%

Fleury 91 (A) 36.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Quevilly face Fleury 91 in France - Ligue 3 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quevilly a 35% chance, the draw 28% and Fleury 91 36%, so Fleury 91 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Quevilly and 1.1 for Fleury 91 (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quevilly are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.48 for Fleury 91. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Quevilly vs Fleury 91 Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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