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Caen vs Aubagne Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Matchday 3 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 18:45

Caen

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWL ·

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Aubagne

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLW ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.1%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.6%1-19.0%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.7%3-17.2%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-16.5%4+-23.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 58.8% 1.70 -3.3%

Draw 21.8% 27.8% 3.60 -12.9%

Away win 21.4% 23.8% 4.20 -6.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 37.0% 2.70 -1.2%

BTTS 54.7% 61.7% 1.62 -11.4%

Home O1.5 65.1% 59.9% 1.67 +8.7%

Away O1.5 25.7% 33.3% 3.00 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 11%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 57% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0✓ 9.6%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caen2.2

Aubagne0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CAEN · PPG 1.75

AUBAGNE · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Caen (H) 56.9%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -3.3%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.9%

Aubagne (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caen face Aubagne in France - Ligue 3 on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caen a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Aubagne 21%, so Caen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Caen and 0.9 for Aubagne (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caen are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.38 for Aubagne. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +8.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Caen vs Aubagne Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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