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Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Caen Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:45

Bourg-en-bresse 01

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLL ·

UPCOMING

Caen

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-19.5%0-27.1%0-33.6%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.9%1-111.9%1-29.0%1-34.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.0%2-17.5%2-25.7%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.1%3-13.2%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 30.3% 3.30 +1.6%

Draw 24.3% 33.3% 3.00 -16.3%

Away win 45.0% 50.0% 2.00 -10.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

BTTS 55.9% 60.6% 1.65 -7.8%

Home O1.5 38.0% 36.4% 2.75 +4.5%

Away O1.5 45.1% 52.4% 1.91 -13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 10%

BTTS 20%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–1 9.5%

#4 0–2 7.1%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bourg-en-bresse 011.3

Caen1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BOURG-EN-BRESSE 01 · PPG 1.36

CAEN · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bourg-en-bresse 01 (H) 30.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +1.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.3%

Caen (A) 45.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bourg-en-bresse 01 face Caen in France - Ligue 3 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bourg-en-bresse 01 a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Caen 45%, so Caen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Bourg-en-bresse 01 and 1.5 for Caen (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bourg-en-bresse 01 are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.98 for Caen. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.9%.

Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Caen Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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