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Valenciennes vs Concarneau Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:45

Valenciennes

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLD ·

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Concarneau

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-110.4%0-25.7%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.9%1-113.1%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.5%2-18.2%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.1%3-13.4%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 43.5% 2.30 -11.7%

Draw 26.7% 33.3% 3.00 -11.9%

Away win 34.9% 33.3% 3.00 +4.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 48.8% 2.05 +3.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.8% 3.60 +2.0%

BTTS 52.7% 57.1% 1.75 -7.8%

Home O1.5 36.3% 43.5% 2.30 -16.5%

Away O1.5 33.0% 35.7% 2.80 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 11%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 0–1 10.4%

#4 0–0✓ 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valenciennes1.3

Concarneau1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENCIENNES · PPG 1.77

CONCARNEAU · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.16, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Valenciennes (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -11.7%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.9%

Concarneau (A) 34.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valenciennes face Concarneau in France - Ligue 3 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valenciennes a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Concarneau 35%, so Valenciennes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Valenciennes and 1.1 for Concarneau (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valenciennes are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.25 for Concarneau. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Valenciennes vs Concarneau Prediction— France - Ligue 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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