Today / Australia - New South Wales NPL / Marconi S. vs Manly Utd

Marconi S. vs Manly Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 09:00

Marconi S.

PPG 3.00 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Manly Utd

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 82.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a clear edge.

+14.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-12.4%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.7%1-15.9%1-21.2%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.9%2-17.2%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.8%3-15.9%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-015.2%4+-16.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 82.1% 71.4% 1.40 +14.9%

Draw 13.2% 23.1% 4.33 -42.8%

Away win 4.7% 16.7% 6.00 -71.8%

Over 2.5 55.0% 61.7% 1.62 -10.9%

Over 3.5 32.7% 39.2% 2.55 -16.6%

BTTS 31.7% 57.1% 1.75 -44.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob31.7%

H 82% / xG 2.5-0.4 / O2.5 55% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.9%

#2 3–0 13.8%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 4–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marconi S.2.5

Manly Utd0.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MARCONI S. · PPG 3.00

MANLY UTD · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Marconi S. (H) 82.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV +14.9%

Draw 13.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -42.8%

Manly Utd (A) 4.7%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -71.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marconi S. face Manly Utd in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marconi S. a 82% chance, the draw 13% and Manly Utd 5%, so Marconi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Marconi S. and 0.4 for Manly Utd (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marconi S. are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Manly Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 4-1.

Marconi S. vs Manly Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - New South Wales NPL Predictions