Today / Sao Jose EC vs Sertaozinho
Sao Jose EC vs Sertaozinho Prediction
Wednesday, April 15, 2026
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 55% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%
Form & verdict
SAO JOSE EC · PPG 1.50
SERTAOZINHO · PPG 1.80
Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.80)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Sao Jose EC face Sertaozinho on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sao Jose EC a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Sertaozinho 23%, so Sao Jose EC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sao Jose EC and 1.2 for Sertaozinho (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sao Jose EC are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.80 for Sertaozinho. This match finished 5-0.