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Ferroviaria vs Juventus Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - A2

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Ferroviaria

PPG 1.90 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Juventus

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.9% vs bookmaker-implied 42.6% — a clear edge.

+57.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.8%0-22.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.2%1-18.6%1-25.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.1%3-17.3%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-17.0%4+-24.1%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.5% 55.6% 1.80 +10.7%

Draw 19.5% 31.3% 3.20 -37.6%

Away win 19.0% 23.1% 4.33 -17.7%

Over 2.5 66.9% 42.6% 2.35 +57.2%

Over 3.5 45.1% 23.1% 4.33 +95.3%

BTTS 62.2% 48.8% 2.05 +27.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.2%

H 62% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 1–1 8.6%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 1–0✓ 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferroviaria2.3

Juventus1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FERROVIARIA · PPG 1.90

JUVENTUS · PPG 1.60

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.90), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Ferroviaria (H) 61.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +10.7%

Draw 19.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -37.6%

Juventus (A) 19.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferroviaria face Juventus in Brazil - Paulista - A2 on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferroviaria a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Juventus 19%, so Ferroviaria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Ferroviaria and 1.2 for Juventus (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferroviaria are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.60 for Juventus. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +95.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Ferroviaria vs Juventus Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - A2

Match Preview & Prediction

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