Agua Santa vs XV Piracicaba Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - A2

Brazil - Paulista - A2 Wednesday, April 15, 2026 —

Agua Santa PPG 2.33

0-1 MISS

XV Piracicaba PPG 1.38

Home· +115.3% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Agua Santa face XV Piracicaba in Brazil - Paulista - A2 on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Agua Santa a 55% chance, the draw 22% and XV Piracicaba 23%, so Agua Santa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Agua Santa and 1.1 for XV Piracicaba (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Agua Santa are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.38 for XV Piracicaba. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +115.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 55.2%

Odds: 3.90 EV: +115.3%

Draw 22.2%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -31.2%

Away 22.6%

Odds: 1.91 EV: -56.8%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 58.9% Odds: 2.35 +38.4%

Over 3.5 36.5% Odds: 4.33 +58.0%

BTTS 58.1% Odds: 2.00 +16.2%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Agua Santa

1.91

XV Piracicaba

1.15

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +38.4% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Home(+115.3%)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=55.2%