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Agua Santa vs XV Piracicaba Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - A2

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Agua Santa

PPG 2.33 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

XV Piracicaba

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 42.6% — a clear edge.

+38.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.4%0-23.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.0%1-110.3%1-25.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.5%3-16.3%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.6%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% 25.6% 3.90 +115.3%

Draw 22.2% 32.3% 3.10 -31.2%

Away win 22.6% 52.4% 1.91 -56.8%

Over 2.5 58.9% 42.6% 2.35 +38.4%

Over 3.5 36.5% 23.1% 4.33 +58.0%

BTTS 58.1% 50.0% 2.00 +16.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.1%

H 55% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 9.0%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Agua Santa1.9

XV Piracicaba1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AGUA SANTA · PPG 2.33

XV PIRACICABA · PPG 1.38

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=55.2%

Win probability 1X2

Agua Santa (H) 55.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +115.3%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -31.2%

XV Piracicaba (A) 22.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -56.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Agua Santa face XV Piracicaba in Brazil - Paulista - A2 on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Agua Santa a 55% chance, the draw 22% and XV Piracicaba 23%, so Agua Santa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Agua Santa and 1.1 for XV Piracicaba (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Agua Santa are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.38 for XV Piracicaba. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +115.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Agua Santa vs XV Piracicaba Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - A2

Match Preview & Prediction

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