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Ituano vs Votuporanguense Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - A2

Second Stage - 6 ·Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Ituano

PPG 2.22 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Votuporanguense

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+40.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.2%0-22.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.5%1-19.1%1-25.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.7%3-16.9%3-24.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-16.1%4+-23.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.6% 55.6% 1.80 +5.5%

Draw 20.5% 30.3% 3.30 -32.4%

Away win 20.9% 24.4% 4.10 -14.3%

Over 2.5 65.1% 46.5% 2.15 +40.0%

Over 3.5 43.1% 25.3% 3.95 +70.3%

BTTS 61.9% 51.3% 1.95 +20.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.9%

H 59% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 9.7%

#2 1–1 9.1%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0 7.5%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituano2.1

Votuporanguense1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUANO · PPG 2.22

VOTUPORANGUENSE · PPG 1.78

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.22) > Away GOOD (1.78)

Win probability 1X2

Ituano (H) 58.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +5.5%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -32.4%

Votuporanguense (A) 20.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituano face Votuporanguense in Brazil - Paulista - A2 on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituano a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Votuporanguense 21%, so Ituano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Ituano and 1.2 for Votuporanguense (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituano are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.78 for Votuporanguense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +70.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Ituano vs Votuporanguense Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - A2

Match Preview & Prediction

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