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Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta Wednesday, April 15, 2026
Sahdag PPG 1.80
0-0 MISS
Cebrayil PPG 0.36
Home· +33.4% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
98% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 74.1%
Odds: 1.80 EV: +33.4%
Draw 14.4%
Odds: 3.55 EV: -48.9%
Away 11.6%
Odds: 3.60 EV: -58.2%
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 76.5% Odds: 1.55 +18.6%
Over 3.5 57.1% Odds: —
BTTS 63.5% Odds: —
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1
2nd 3-1
3rd 2-0
4th 3-0
5th 4-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Sahdag
2.91
Cebrayil
1.11

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 +18.6% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Home(+33.4%)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
98%
STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.80), Away POOR (0.36) - Strong consensus

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