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Sahdag vs Cebrayil Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Sahdag

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Cebrayil

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 76.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+18.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.0%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.2%1-15.8%1-23.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.6%2-18.4%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.4%3-18.2%3-24.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-010.9%4+-112.2%4+-26.8%4+-32.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.1% 55.6% 1.80 +33.4%

Draw 14.4% 28.2% 3.55 -48.9%

Away win 11.6% 27.8% 3.60 -58.2%

Over 2.5 76.5% 64.5% 1.55 +18.6%

Over 3.5 57.1% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 84%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob63.5%

H 74% / xG 2.9-1.1 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 3–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 3–0 7.4%

#5 4–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sahdag2.9

Cebrayil1.1

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.5% · O3.5 PROB 57.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAHDAG · PPG 1.80

CEBRAYIL · PPG 0.36

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.80), Away POOR (0.36) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sahdag (H) 74.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +33.4%

Draw 14.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -48.9%

Cebrayil (A) 11.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -58.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sahdag face Cebrayil in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sahdag a 74% chance, the draw 14% and Cebrayil 12%, so Sahdag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Sahdag and 1.1 for Cebrayil (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sahdag are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.36 for Cebrayil. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +33.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Sahdag vs Cebrayil Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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