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MOIK vs Zaqatala Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 22 ·Wednesday, April 15, 2026

MOIK

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Zaqatala

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-112.2%0-25.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.4%1-113.4%1-26.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.9%2-17.4%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.9%3-12.7%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 48.8% 2.05 -19.6%

Draw 30.4% 30.3% 3.30 +0.3%

Away win 30.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.8%

Over 2.5 33.2% 55.6% 1.80 -40.2%

Over 3.5 14.9% — — —

BTTS 40.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob40.5%

D 30% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–0 13.1%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MOIK1.1

Zaqatala0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MOIK · PPG 1.60

ZAQATALA · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.09)

Win probability 1X2

MOIK (H) 39.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -19.6%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +0.3%

Zaqatala (A) 30.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

MOIK face Zaqatala in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MOIK a 39% chance, the draw 30% and Zaqatala 30%, so MOIK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for MOIK and 0.9 for Zaqatala (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MOIK are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.09 for Zaqatala. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.3%. This match finished 2-1.

MOIK vs Zaqatala Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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