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D. Armenio vs Liniers Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

D. Armenio

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Liniers

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 67.7% vs bookmaker-implied 42.6% — a clear edge.

+59.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-15.4%0-24.7%0-32.7%0-4+1.7%1 1-05.4%1-19.4%1-28.1%1-34.7%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.7%2-18.1%2-27.0%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.7%3-14.7%3-24.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.0%4+-22.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 51.3% 1.95 -24.3%

Draw 22.4% 33.3% 3.00 -32.8%

Away win 38.8% 25.6% 3.90 +51.3%

Over 2.5 67.2% 34.7% 2.88 +93.5%

Over 3.5 45.5% — — —

BTTS 67.7% 42.6% 2.35 +59.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob67.7%

H 39% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 0–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Armenio1.7

Liniers1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

D. ARMENIO · PPG 1.00

LINIERS · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

D. Armenio (H) 38.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -24.3%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -32.8%

Liniers (A) 38.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +51.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Armenio face Liniers in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Armenio a 39% chance, the draw 22% and Liniers 39%, so D. Armenio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for D. Armenio and 1.7 for Liniers (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Armenio are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Liniers. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +93.5%. This match finished 1-0.

D. Armenio vs Liniers Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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