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BSK Banja Luka vs Čelik Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

BSK Banja Luka

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

UPCOMING

Čelik

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-19.1%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.0%1-112.6%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-18.7%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.8%3-14.0%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 40.0% 2.50 +11.0%

Draw 26.6% 33.3% 3.00 -12.1%

Away win 28.9% 41.2% 2.43 -17.9%

Over 2.5 44.5% 48.1% 2.08 -7.4%

Over 3.5 25.5% 27.4% 3.65 -4.2%

BTTS 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Home O1.5 39.6% 39.2% 2.55 +1.0%

Away O1.5 24.0% 40.0% 2.50 -24.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 44% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 15.0%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 0–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BSK Banja Luka1.4

Čelik0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BSK BANJA LUKA · PPG 1.50

ČELIK · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

BSK Banja Luka (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +11.0%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.1%

Čelik (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.43 · IMPLIED 41.2% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

BSK Banja Luka face Čelik in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BSK Banja Luka a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Čelik 29%, so BSK Banja Luka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for BSK Banja Luka and 0.8 for Čelik (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BSK Banja Luka are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.06 for Čelik. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +1.0%.

BSK Banja Luka vs Čelik Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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