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Eker Örebro vs Karlslund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Eker Örebro

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

UPCOMING

Karlslund

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 78.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-17.2%0-26.2%0-33.5%0-4+2.2%1 1-06.1%1-110.5%1-29.0%1-35.1%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-17.6%2-26.5%2-33.7%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.2%3-13.7%3-23.2%3-31.8%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.3% 41.7% 2.40 -27.3%

Draw 21.6% 27.8% 3.60 -13.3%

Away win 48.1% 44.4% 2.25 +8.2%

Over 2.5 61.5% 78.7% 1.27 -21.9%

Over 3.5 40.0% 58.5% 1.71 -31.6%

BTTS 58.3% 77.5% 1.29 -24.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 63.7% 1.57 -37.4%

Away O1.5 47.9% 63.7% 1.57 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.3%

A 48% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.0%

#2 1–1 10.5%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 0–2 6.2%

#5 0–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eker Örebro1.5

Karlslund1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EKER ÖREBRO · PPG 1.11

KARLSLUND · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Eker Örebro (H) 30.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -27.3%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.3%

Karlslund (A) 48.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eker Örebro face Karlslund in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eker Örebro a 30% chance, the draw 22% and Karlslund 48%, so Karlslund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Eker Örebro and 1.7 for Karlslund (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eker Örebro are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.78 for Karlslund.

Eker Örebro vs Karlslund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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