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Nacka Iliria vs Smedby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Nacka Iliria

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWL

UPCOMING

Smedby

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-18.4%0-27.3%0-34.3%0-4+2.8%1 1-06.2%1-110.8%1-29.4%1-35.5%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.0%2-17.0%2-26.1%2-33.6%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.7%3-13.0%3-22.6%3-31.5%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 41.2% 2.43 -17.3%

Draw 23.7% 29.9% 3.35 -12.4%

Away win 47.0% 42.6% 2.35 +10.4%

Over 2.5 59.6% 66.7% 1.50 -10.6%

Over 3.5 36.4% 44.4% 2.25 -18.1%

BTTS 59.6% — — —

Home O1.5 38.4% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.6%

A 47% / xG 1.3-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 0–2 7.3%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacka Iliria1.3

Smedby1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NACKA ILIRIA · PPG 1.11

SMEDBY · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nacka Iliria (H) 29.3%

ODDS 2.43 · IMPLIED 41.2% EV -17.3%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -12.4%

Smedby (A) 47.0%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacka Iliria face Smedby in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacka Iliria a 29% chance, the draw 24% and Smedby 47%, so Smedby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nacka Iliria and 1.8 for Smedby (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacka Iliria are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.33 for Smedby.

Nacka Iliria vs Smedby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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