Today / Philippines - PFL / Garelli Utd vs Philippine Army

Garelli Utd vs Philippine Army Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 08:00

Garelli Utd

PPG 0.67 · HOME

9 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Philippine Army

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.1%0-21.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-02.0%1-13.7%1-23.4%1-32.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-03.3%2-16.0%2-25.5%2-33.4%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.5%3-16.5%3-26.0%3-33.6%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-112.0%4+-211.0%4+-36.7%4+-4+4.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.5% — — —

Draw 15.3% — — —

Away win 19.2% — — —

Over 2.5 88.2% — — —

Over 3.5 74.6% — — —

BTTS 80.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 9-1

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob80.7%

H 66% / xG 3.2-1.8 / O2.5 88% / BTTS 81%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.5%

#2 2–1 6.0%

#3 3–2 6.0%

#4 2–2 5.5%

#5 4–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Garelli Utd3.2

Philippine Army1.8

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 88.2% · O3.5 PROB 74.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GARELLI UTD · PPG 0.67

PHILIPPINE ARMY · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Garelli Utd (H) 65.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Philippine Army (A) 19.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Garelli Utd face Philippine Army in Philippines - PFL on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Garelli Utd a 66% chance, the draw 15% and Philippine Army 19%, so Garelli Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Garelli Utd and 1.8 for Philippine Army (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 88% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 81% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Garelli Utd are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.00 for Philippine Army. This match finished 9-1.

Garelli Utd vs Philippine Army Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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