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Leixões U23 vs Sporting CP U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Leixões U23

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WLD ··

UPCOMING

Sporting CP U23

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.9%0-25.6%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.3%1-111.6%1-28.2%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-18.6%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.0%3-14.2%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 43.5% 2.30 -10.1%

Draw 24.3% 27.8% 3.60 -7.5%

Away win 36.5% 40.0% 2.50 -8.8%

Over 2.5 58.1% 57.8% 1.73 +0.5%

Over 3.5 35.4% 36.5% 2.74 -3.0%

BTTS 59.0% 63.7% 1.57 -7.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 48.1% 2.08 -17.0%

Away O1.5 42.2% 44.6% 2.24 -5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.0%

H 39% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 1–0 8.3%

#5 0–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leixões U231.5

Sporting CP U231.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LEIXÕES U23 · PPG 1.25

SPORTING CP U23 · PPG 1.79

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leixões U23 (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -10.1%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.5%

Sporting CP U23 (A) 36.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leixões U23 face Sporting CP U23 in Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leixões U23 a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Sporting CP U23 37%, so Leixões U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Leixões U23 and 1.4 for Sporting CP U23 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leixões U23 are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.79 for Sporting CP U23. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.5%.

Leixões U23 vs Sporting CP U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Match Preview & Prediction

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