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Farense U23 vs Famalicão U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 10:00

Farense U23

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWW ·

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Famalicão U23

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.8%0-25.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.6%1-111.0%1-28.0%1-33.8%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.8%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.2%3-14.7%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 34.7% 2.88 +22.7%

Draw 23.1% 29.9% 3.35 -13.6%

Away win 34.3% 45.5% 2.20 -24.5%

Over 2.5 60.9% 55.6% 1.80 +9.6%

Over 3.5 37.7% 33.3% 3.00 +13.1%

BTTS 61.5% 61.7% 1.62 -0.4%

Home O1.5 47.9% 40.8% 2.45 +17.4%

Away O1.5 42.2% 48.8% 2.05 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–0 6.1%

#5 1–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Farense U231.6

Famalicão U231.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FARENSE U23 · PPG 1.42

FAMALICÃO U23 · PPG 1.69

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Farense U23 (H) 42.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +22.7%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -13.6%

Famalicão U23 (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Farense U23 face Famalicão U23 in Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Farense U23 a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Famalicão U23 34%, so Farense U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Farense U23 and 1.5 for Famalicão U23 (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Farense U23 are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.69 for Famalicão U23. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 4-3.

Farense U23 vs Famalicão U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Match Preview & Prediction

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