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Marítimo U23 vs Estrela U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 14:00

Marítimo U23

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

DDL ··

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Estrela U23

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.4%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.2%1-111.2%1-26.1%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.7%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.2%3-15.7%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 48.8% 2.05 +7.6%

Draw 24.1% 28.2% 3.55 -8.7%

Away win 23.4% 33.3% 3.00 -17.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 36.4% 2.75 -13.4%

BTTS 52.7% 63.7% 1.57 -17.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 54.1% 1.85 -9.5%

Away O1.5 33.0% 40.8% 2.45 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0✓ 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marítimo U231.7

Estrela U231.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MARÍTIMO U23 · PPG 1.17

ESTRELA U23 · PPG 0.81

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Marítimo U23 (H) 52.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +7.6%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.7%

Estrela U23 (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marítimo U23 face Estrela U23 in Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marítimo U23 a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Estrela U23 23%, so Marítimo U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Marítimo U23 and 1.1 for Estrela U23 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marítimo U23 are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.81 for Estrela U23. This match finished 0-0.

Marítimo U23 vs Estrela U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Match Preview & Prediction

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