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Gil Vicente U23 vs Rio Ave U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 16:00

Gil Vicente U23

PPG 1.74 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLL ·

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rio Ave U23

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.0%0-24.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.5%1-111.3%1-27.5%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.2%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.7%3-14.9%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.9%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 44.4% 2.25 -0.3%

Draw 24.1% 29.0% 3.45 -10.1%

Away win 31.6% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 56.5% 1.77 -4.8%

Over 3.5 33.5% 33.9% 2.95 -1.2%

BTTS 55.9% 62.5% 1.60 -10.6%

Home O1.5 48.1% 48.8% 2.05 -1.4%

Away O1.5 42.2% 42.6% 2.35 -0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gil Vicente U231.6

Rio Ave U231.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GIL VICENTE U23 · PPG 1.74

RIO AVE U23 · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gil Vicente U23 (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -0.3%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.1%

Rio Ave U23 (A) 31.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gil Vicente U23 face Rio Ave U23 in Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gil Vicente U23 a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Rio Ave U23 32%, so Gil Vicente U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Gil Vicente U23 and 1.3 for Rio Ave U23 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gil Vicente U23 are averaging 1.74 points per game versus 1.29 for Rio Ave U23. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Gil Vicente U23 vs Rio Ave U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Match Preview & Prediction

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