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Academico Viseu U23 vs Vizela U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 16:00

Academico Viseu U23

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Vizela U23

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-13.2%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.9%1-17.7%1-23.0%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-19.3%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.6%3-17.5%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.2%4+-18.0%4+-23.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.5% 64.5% 1.55 +1.5%

Draw 20.0% 26.3% 3.80 -14.4%

Away win 14.5% 19.6% 5.10 -15.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 37.0% 2.70 -0.9%

BTTS 49.4% 58.8% 1.70 -16.0%

Home O1.5 65.8% 62.5% 1.60 +5.3%

Away O1.5 23.0% 29.4% 3.40 -13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.4%

H 66% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 3–0 9.6%

#4 2–1✓ 9.3%

#5 1–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Academico Viseu U232.4

Vizela U230.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ACADEMICO VISEU U23 · PPG 2.10

VIZELA U23 · PPG 0.78

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.63 for Home, form 2.10 vs 0.78 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Academico Viseu U23 (H) 65.5%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV +1.5%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -14.4%

Vizela U23 (A) 14.5%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Academico Viseu U23 face Vizela U23 in Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Academico Viseu U23 a 66% chance, the draw 20% and Vizela U23 14%, so Academico Viseu U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Academico Viseu U23 and 0.8 for Vizela U23 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Academico Viseu U23 are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.78 for Vizela U23. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Academico Viseu U23 vs Vizela U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Match Preview & Prediction

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