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União Leiria U23 vs Marítimo U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 16:00

União Leiria U23

PPG 1.10 · HOME

LAST 5

DWW ··

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Marítimo U23

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.1%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.5%1-111.5%1-27.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.4%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.1%3-15.1%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 51.3% 1.95 -11.9%

Draw 25.7% 29.4% 3.40 -7.6%

Away win 29.0% 29.9% 3.35 -1.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 31.3% 3.20 +1.1%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 48.1% 51.3% 1.95 -6.2%

Away O1.5 36.8% 35.7% 2.80 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 2–0✓ 7.7%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

União Leiria U231.6

Marítimo U231.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIÃO LEIRIA U23 · PPG 1.10

MARÍTIMO U23 · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

União Leiria U23 (H) 45.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -11.9%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.6%

Marítimo U23 (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

União Leiria U23 face Marítimo U23 in Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives União Leiria U23 a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Marítimo U23 29%, so União Leiria U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for União Leiria U23 and 1.2 for Marítimo U23 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, União Leiria U23 are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.00 for Marítimo U23. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.3%. This match finished 2-0.

União Leiria U23 vs Marítimo U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Match Preview & Prediction

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