Today / Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 / Leixões U23 vs União Leiria U23
Leixões U23 vs União Leiria U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23
Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 16:00
// Model verdict
BTTS
Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 52% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%
Form & verdict
LEIXÕES U23 · PPG 1.50
UNIÃO LEIRIA U23 · PPG 1.31
xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Leixões U23 face União Leiria U23 in Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leixões U23 a 52% chance, the draw 25% and União Leiria U23 23%, so Leixões U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Leixões U23 and 1.1 for União Leiria U23 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leixões U23 are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.31 for União Leiria U23. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 1-2.