Today / Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 / Leixões U23 vs União Leiria U23

Leixões U23 vs União Leiria U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 16:00

Leixões U23 logo
Leixões U23
PPG 1.50 · HOME
LAST 5
WLD ··
1 – 2
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS
União Leiria U23 logo
União Leiria U23
PPG 1.31 · AWAY
LAST 5
DWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.8%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.6%1-110.7%1-25.9%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.4%3-16.0%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.2%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 51.7% 59.9% 1.67 -13.7%
Draw 25.3% 27.4% 3.65 -4.6%
Away win 23.0% 22.7% 4.40 +0.7%
Over 2.5 53.4% 55.6% 1.80 -3.9%
Over 3.5 31.5% 33.3% 3.00 -5.5%
BTTS 52.7% 57.8% 1.73 -8.8%
Home O1.5 55.1% 57.8% 1.73 -4.7%
Away O1.5 33.0% 29.9% 3.35 +10.5%

League track record

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%
O2.5 41%
BTTS 47%
Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-2
xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%
#2 2–1 9.8%
#3 2–0 8.9%
#4 1–0 9.6%
#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leixões U231.8
União Leiria U231.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LEIXÕES U23 · PPG 1.50

UNIÃO LEIRIA U23 · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
75%
MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Leixões U23 (H) 51.7%
ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -13.7%
Draw 25.3%
ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.6%
União Leiria U23 (A) 23.0%
ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leixões U23 face União Leiria U23 in Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leixões U23 a 52% chance, the draw 25% and União Leiria U23 23%, so Leixões U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Leixões U23 and 1.1 for União Leiria U23 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leixões U23 are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.31 for União Leiria U23. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 1-2.

PredictVantage

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