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Estrela U23 vs Sporting CP U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 16:00

Estrela U23

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDL ·

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sporting CP U23

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-111.1%0-28.2%0-34.0%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.4%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.7%2-16.9%2-25.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.7%3-12.6%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 26.0% 3.85 +3.8%

Draw 24.2% 28.6% 3.50 -9.2%

Away win 48.2% 55.6% 1.80 -13.2%

Over 2.5 51.5% 55.6% 1.80 -7.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 52.9% 59.9% 1.67 -11.7%

Home O1.5 31.0% 33.3% 3.00 -7.0%

Away O1.5 42.2% 55.6% 1.80 -24.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.9%

A 48% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 11.1%

#3 1–2✓ 9.1%

#4 0–2 8.2%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estrela U231.1

Sporting CP U231.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTRELA U23 · PPG 1.18

SPORTING CP U23 · PPG 1.59

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Estrela U23 (H) 27.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +3.8%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.2%

Sporting CP U23 (A) 48.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estrela U23 face Sporting CP U23 in Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estrela U23 a 28% chance, the draw 24% and Sporting CP U23 48%, so Sporting CP U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Estrela U23 and 1.5 for Sporting CP U23 (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estrela U23 are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.59 for Sporting CP U23. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Estrela U23 vs Sporting CP U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Match Preview & Prediction

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