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Torreense U23 vs Sporting Braga U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Torreense U23

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

DDD ··

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sporting Braga U23

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-18.0%0-25.1%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.4%1-112.0%1-27.6%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-18.9%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.5%3-14.5%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 46.5% 2.15 -11.2%

Draw 24.3% 33.3% 3.00 -16.3%

Away win 34.4% 34.5% 2.90 -0.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 32.8% 3.05 -3.3%

BTTS 55.9% 59.9% 1.67 -6.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 47.4% 2.11 -15.8%

Away O1.5 37.3% 38.3% 2.61 -2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torreense U231.5

Sporting Braga U231.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TORREENSE U23 · PPG 1.54

SPORTING BRAGA U23 · PPG 1.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Torreense U23 (H) 41.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -11.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.3%

Sporting Braga U23 (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torreense U23 face Sporting Braga U23 in Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torreense U23 a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Sporting Braga U23 34%, so Torreense U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Torreense U23 and 1.3 for Sporting Braga U23 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torreense U23 are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.59 for Sporting Braga U23. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Torreense U23 vs Sporting Braga U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Match Preview & Prediction

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