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Caboolture vs Redlands Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 08:00

Caboolture

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Redlands

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 76% chance

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.8%0-23.5%0-32.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-04.2%1-17.8%1-27.2%1-34.4%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.3%2-17.9%2-27.3%2-34.5%2-4+3.1%3 3-02.9%3-15.4%3-24.9%3-33.0%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.4%4+-24.0%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 56.5% 1.77 -23.4%

Draw 21.0% 24.4% 4.10 -13.9%

Away win 35.7% 29.4% 3.40 +21.4%

Over 2.5 74.3% 76.9% 1.30 -3.4%

Over 3.5 54.2% 55.6% 1.80 -2.4%

BTTS 73.2% 76.9% 1.30 -4.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 22.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob73.2%

H 43% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 73%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.9%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caboolture2.0

Redlands1.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.3% · O3.5 PROB 54.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CABOOLTURE · PPG 1.25

REDLANDS · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

76%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Caboolture (H) 43.3%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -23.4%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -13.9%

Redlands (A) 35.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caboolture face Redlands in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caboolture a 43% chance, the draw 21% and Redlands 36%, so Caboolture are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Caboolture and 1.8 for Redlands (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caboolture are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.33 for Redlands. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.4%. This match finished 4-2.

Caboolture vs Redlands Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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