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South Adelaide Panthers vs Adelaide Victory Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 07:30

South Adelaide Panthers

PPG 1.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adelaide Victory

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-15.4%0-25.6%0-33.9%0-4+3.2%1 1-04.1%1-18.6%1-28.8%1-36.1%1-4+5.0%2 2-03.3%2-16.7%2-26.9%2-34.8%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.7%3-13.5%3-23.6%3-32.5%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.0%4+-22.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 42.1% — — —

Over 2.5 66.0% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 54.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.3%

A 42% / xG 1.6-2.1 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 1–3 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Adelaide Panthers1.6

Adelaide Victory2.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH ADELAIDE PANTHERS · PPG 1.10

ADELAIDE VICTORY · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

South Adelaide Panthers (H) 35.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Adelaide Victory (A) 42.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

South Adelaide Panthers face Adelaide Victory in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Adelaide Panthers a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Adelaide Victory 42%, so Adelaide Victory are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for South Adelaide Panthers and 2.1 for Adelaide Victory (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Adelaide Panthers are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.40 for Adelaide Victory.

South Adelaide Panthers vs Adelaide Victory Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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