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Sydney Olympic vs UNSW Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 07:00

Sydney Olympic

PPG 0.14 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

UNSW

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+12.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.6%0-26.3%0-34.8%0-4+4.6%1 1-03.5%1-18.0%1-29.1%1-36.9%1-4+6.6%2 2-02.6%2-15.8%2-26.5%2-34.9%2-4+4.8%3 3-01.2%3-12.8%3-23.1%3-32.4%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.4%4+-21.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.9% 37.7% 2.65 -36.7%

Draw 20.0% 26.3% 3.80 -24.0%

Away win 56.1% 45.5% 2.20 +23.4%

Over 2.5 71.6% 63.7% 1.57 +12.4%

Over 3.5 50.7% 40.8% 2.45 +24.2%

BTTS 68.4% 67.6% 1.48 +1.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob68.4%

A 56% / xG 1.4-2.3 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.1%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 1–3 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney Olympic1.4

UNSW2.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 50.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY OLYMPIC · PPG 0.14

UNSW · PPG 0.50

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.14) vs Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Sydney Olympic (H) 23.9%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -36.7%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -24.0%

UNSW (A) 56.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney Olympic face UNSW in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney Olympic a 24% chance, the draw 20% and UNSW 56%, so UNSW are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sydney Olympic and 2.3 for UNSW (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney Olympic are averaging 0.14 points per game versus 0.50 for UNSW. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Sydney Olympic vs UNSW Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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