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Fernando De La Mora vs Tacuary Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

Fernando De La Mora

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tacuary

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.7%0-24.7%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.8%1-111.9%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.2%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.9%3-14.7%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 45.5% 2.20 +0.1%

Draw 24.7% 30.3% 3.30 -11.1%

Away win 29.8% 36.4% 2.75 -10.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.7% 2.97 -6.4%

BTTS 55.0% 61.3% 1.63 -10.3%

Home O1.5 43.1% 46.5% 2.15 -7.3%

Away O1.5 36.6% 40.8% 2.45 -10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -43.1%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.0%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fernando De La Mora1.5

Tacuary1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FERNANDO DE LA MORA · PPG 1.00

TACUARY · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fernando De La Mora (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +0.1%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.1%

Tacuary (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fernando De La Mora face Tacuary in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fernando De La Mora a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Tacuary 30%, so Fernando De La Mora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Fernando De La Mora and 1.2 for Tacuary (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fernando De La Mora are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Tacuary. This match finished 1-1.

Fernando De La Mora vs Tacuary Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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