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Mercedes vs Defensores de Cambaceres Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 27 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 22:00

Mercedes

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

UPCOMING

Defensores de Cambaceres

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.6%0-19.2%0-22.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.6%1-111.4%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-17.1%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.3%3-12.9%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 42.0% 2.38 +15.7%

Draw 28.3% 37.0% 2.70 -14.1%

Away win 23.0% 31.3% 3.20 -15.8%

Over 2.5 38.8% 35.1% 2.85 +10.6%

Over 3.5 18.5% 16.7% 6.00 +6.6%

BTTS 42.4% 45.5% 2.20 -6.7%

Home O1.5 35.2% 33.9% 2.95 +3.8%

Away O1.5 14.0% 26.7% 3.75 -28.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.4%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.6%

#2 0–0 16.6%

#3 2–0 12.8%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 1–1 11.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mercedes1.2

Defensores de Cambaceres0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MERCEDES · PPG 1.92

DEFENSORES DE CAMBACERES · PPG 1.15

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mercedes (H) 48.6%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +15.7%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.1%

Defensores de Cambaceres (A) 23.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mercedes face Defensores de Cambaceres in Argentina - Primera C on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mercedes a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Defensores de Cambaceres 23%, so Mercedes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mercedes and 0.6 for Defensores de Cambaceres (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mercedes are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.15 for Defensores de Cambaceres. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.9%.

Mercedes vs Defensores de Cambaceres Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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