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Yupanqui vs Leones de Rosario Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 27 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Yupanqui

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

UPCOMING

Leones de Rosario

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-112.1%0-26.1%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.3%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.4%2-17.5%2-23.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.7%3-12.8%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 29.4% 3.40 +23.1%

Draw 27.9% 33.3% 3.00 -9.8%

Away win 35.9% 47.6% 2.10 -24.6%

Over 2.5 44.0% 46.5% 2.15 -5.4%

Over 3.5 23.7% 25.6% 3.90 -4.5%

BTTS 49.6% 54.6% 1.83 -9.2%

Home O1.5 31.0% 31.3% 3.20 -0.8%

Away O1.5 31.0% 44.4% 2.25 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.6%

H 36% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–1 12.1%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 1–0 13.3%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yupanqui1.1

Leones de Rosario1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.7%

Form & verdict PPG

YUPANQUI · PPG 1.08

LEONES DE ROSARIO · PPG 1.42

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.10, combined xG 2.12 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Yupanqui (H) 36.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +23.1%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.8%

Leones de Rosario (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -24.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yupanqui face Leones de Rosario in Argentina - Primera C on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yupanqui a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Leones de Rosario 36%, so Yupanqui are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Yupanqui and 1.0 for Leones de Rosario (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yupanqui are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.42 for Leones de Rosario. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.7%.

Yupanqui vs Leones de Rosario Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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