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Leones de Rosario vs Atletico Atlas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 26 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 18:00

Leones de Rosario

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Atletico Atlas

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-113.5%0-25.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.6%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.1%2-16.5%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.7%3-12.1%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 47.6% 2.10 -22.1%

Draw 32.5% 35.7% 2.80 -9.0%

Away win 30.4% 28.6% 3.50 +6.4%

Over 2.5 38.0% 40.0% 2.50 -5.0%

Over 3.5 18.4% 22.2% 4.50 -10.3%

BTTS 43.6% 47.6% 2.10 -8.4%

Home O1.5 30.8% 38.2% 2.62 -19.3%

Away O1.5 23.5% 26.7% 3.75 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.6%

D 32% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.9%

#2 1–0✓ 16.6%

#3 1–1 13.2%

#4 0–1 13.5%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones de Rosario1.0

Atletico Atlas0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES DE ROSARIO · PPG 1.54

ATLETICO ATLAS · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 1.78 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leones de Rosario (H) 37.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -22.1%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -9.0%

Atletico Atlas (A) 30.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones de Rosario face Atletico Atlas in Argentina - Primera C on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones de Rosario a 37% chance, the draw 33% and Atletico Atlas 30%, so Leones de Rosario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Leones de Rosario and 0.8 for Atletico Atlas (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones de Rosario are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.33 for Atletico Atlas. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Leones de Rosario vs Atletico Atlas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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