Today / Argentina - Primera C / Leandro N. Alem vs Puerto Nuevo

Leandro N. Alem vs Puerto Nuevo Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Leandro N. Alem

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Puerto Nuevo

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-112.5%0-27.9%0-33.3%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.4%1-113.1%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.5%2-16.9%2-24.3%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.9%3-12.4%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% 40.8% 2.45 -24.1%

Draw 26.9% 34.5% 2.90 -13.2%

Away win 42.1% 34.7% 2.88 +21.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 41.7% 2.40 +21.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 52.7% 51.3% 1.95 +2.8%

Home O1.5 30.9% 37.0% 2.70 -16.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 33.3% 3.00 +9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.7%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–1 12.5%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leandro N. Alem1.1

Puerto Nuevo1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEANDRO N. ALEM · PPG 1.38

PUERTO NUEVO · PPG 1.75

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.21, combined xG 2.31 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leandro N. Alem (H) 31.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -24.1%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.2%

Puerto Nuevo (A) 42.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leandro N. Alem face Puerto Nuevo in Argentina - Primera C on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leandro N. Alem a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Puerto Nuevo 42%, so Puerto Nuevo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Leandro N. Alem and 1.3 for Puerto Nuevo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leandro N. Alem are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.75 for Puerto Nuevo. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.2%. This match finished 0-3.

Leandro N. Alem vs Puerto Nuevo Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera C Predictions