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Central Ballester vs Yupanqui Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Central Ballester

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Yupanqui

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-110.6%0-26.5%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.6%1-113.0%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.5%2-17.9%2-24.8%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.6%3-13.2%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 38.2% 2.62 +0.4%

Draw 26.8% 33.3% 3.00 -11.8%

Away win 34.9% 38.2% 2.62 -8.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 42.0% 2.38 +20.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 52.7% 51.3% 1.95 +2.8%

Home O1.5 33.3% 35.7% 2.80 -6.8%

Away O1.5 36.6% 35.7% 2.80 +2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 38% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 10.6%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Ballester1.2

Yupanqui1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL BALLESTER · PPG 1.08

YUPANQUI · PPG 1.58

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.00, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Central Ballester (H) 38.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +0.4%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.8%

Yupanqui (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Ballester face Yupanqui in Argentina - Primera C on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Ballester a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Yupanqui 35%, so Central Ballester are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Central Ballester and 1.2 for Yupanqui (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Ballester are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.58 for Yupanqui. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +26.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Central Ballester vs Yupanqui Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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