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El Porvenir vs Claypole Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

El Porvenir

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDW

4 – 2

FULL TIME

Claypole

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.2%0-112.6%0-23.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.8%1-111.8%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.8%2-15.6%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.1%3-11.7%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 42.6% 2.35 -1.8%

Draw 34.3% 35.7% 2.80 -4.0%

Away win 24.0% 33.3% 3.00 -16.8%

Over 2.5 34.2% 38.2% 2.62 -10.4%

Over 3.5 14.2% 20.0% 5.00 -17.4%

BTTS 42.6% 45.5% 2.20 -6.3%

Home O1.5 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

Away O1.5 15.3% 28.6% 3.50 -27.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.6%

H 42% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.2%

#2 1–0 20.8%

#3 0–1 12.6%

#4 1–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Porvenir0.9

Claypole0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

EL PORVENIR · PPG 1.08

CLAYPOLE · PPG 0.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 1.51 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

El Porvenir (H) 41.8%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -1.8%

Draw 34.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -4.0%

Claypole (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Porvenir face Claypole in Argentina - Primera C on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Porvenir a 42% chance, the draw 34% and Claypole 24%, so El Porvenir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for El Porvenir and 0.6 for Claypole (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Porvenir are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 0.92 for Claypole. This match finished 4-2.

El Porvenir vs Claypole Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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