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Estrella Del Sur vs Victoriano Arenas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Estrella Del Sur

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Victoriano Arenas

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.3%0-114.9%0-25.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.6%1-112.4%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.7%2-15.2%2-21.7%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.2%3-11.4%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 39.2% 2.55 -6.9%

Draw 34.8% 37.7% 2.65 -7.8%

Away win 28.8% 33.3% 3.00 -8.2%

Over 2.5 34.2% 32.3% 3.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 14.2% 15.4% 6.50 -4.6%

BTTS 42.6% 43.5% 2.30 -2.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 30.3% 3.30 +2.0%

Away O1.5 18.2% 26.7% 3.75 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.6%

D 35% / xG 0.8-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.3%

#2 1–0 18.6%

#3 0–1 14.9%

#4 1–1✓ 12.4%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estrella Del Sur0.8

Victoriano Arenas0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTRELLA DEL SUR · PPG 1.83

VICTORIANO ARENAS · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.17, combined xG 1.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Estrella Del Sur (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -6.9%

Draw 34.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -7.8%

Victoriano Arenas (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estrella Del Sur face Victoriano Arenas in Argentina - Primera C on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estrella Del Sur a 37% chance, the draw 35% and Victoriano Arenas 29%, so Estrella Del Sur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Estrella Del Sur and 0.7 for Victoriano Arenas (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estrella Del Sur are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.17 for Victoriano Arenas. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Estrella Del Sur vs Victoriano Arenas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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