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Argentino Rosario vs Centro Español Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Argentino Rosario

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Centro Español

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-114.7%0-28.9%0-33.6%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.9%1-113.2%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-04.9%2-15.9%2-23.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.5%3-11.8%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 28.6% 3.50 +2.4%

Draw 27.3% 32.3% 3.10 -9.2%

Away win 43.0% 48.8% 2.05 -11.8%

Over 2.5 44.1% 41.7% 2.40 +5.8%

Over 3.5 23.2% 22.2% 4.50 +2.6%

BTTS 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 28.2% 3.55 +9.7%

Away O1.5 36.6% 42.0% 2.38 -12.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.5%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.7%

#2 1–1✓ 13.2%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentino Rosario0.9

Centro Español1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINO ROSARIO · PPG 1.31

CENTRO ESPAÑOL · PPG 1.58

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.32, combined xG 2.11 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Argentino Rosario (H) 29.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +2.4%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.2%

Centro Español (A) 43.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentino Rosario face Centro Español in Argentina - Primera C on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentino Rosario a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Centro Español 43%, so Centro Español are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Argentino Rosario and 1.2 for Centro Español (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentino Rosario are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.58 for Centro Español. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +15.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Argentino Rosario vs Centro Español Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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