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Juventud Unida vs Mercedes Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Juventud Unida

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

Mercedes

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.8%0-114.8%0-26.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.9%1-113.2%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.1%2-15.9%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.1%3-11.8%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 48.8% 2.05 -23.9%

Draw 32.9% 34.7% 2.88 -5.3%

Away win 30.0% 26.0% 3.85 +15.5%

Over 2.5 36.9% 43.5% 2.30 -15.1%

Over 3.5 18.0% 23.8% 4.20 -14.6%

BTTS 44.4% 52.4% 1.91 -15.2%

Home O1.5 30.9% 44.4% 2.25 -30.5%

Away O1.5 23.5% 28.2% 3.55 -10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.4%

D 33% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.8%

#2 1–0 15.9%

#3 1–1 13.2%

#4 0–1 14.8%

#5 2–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventud Unida0.9

Mercedes0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUD UNIDA · PPG 1.17

MERCEDES · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.06, combined xG 1.73 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Juventud Unida (H) 37.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -23.9%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -5.3%

Mercedes (A) 30.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventud Unida face Mercedes in Argentina - Primera C on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventud Unida a 37% chance, the draw 33% and Mercedes 30%, so Juventud Unida are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Juventud Unida and 0.8 for Mercedes (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventud Unida are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.00 for Mercedes. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 4-1.

Juventud Unida vs Mercedes Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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