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Popayan vs Bogota FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 20:30

Popayan

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Bogota FC

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.2%0-114.6%0-25.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.4%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.4%2-15.9%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.2%3-11.8%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% 44.4% 2.25 -14.3%

Draw 32.5% 33.3% 3.00 -2.5%

Away win 29.4% 32.3% 3.10 -5.3%

Over 2.5 34.2% 40.8% 2.45 -16.2%

Over 3.5 17.9% 22.2% 4.50 -11.7%

BTTS 43.7% 50.0% 2.00 -12.6%

Home O1.5 30.9% 38.5% 2.60 -19.7%

Away O1.5 23.5% 30.3% 3.30 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.7%

D 32% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.2%

#2 1–0 16.4%

#3 0–1 14.6%

#4 1–1 13.2%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Popayan0.9

Bogota FC0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

POPAYAN · PPG 1.00

BOGOTA FC · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.10, combined xG 1.70 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Popayan (H) 38.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -14.3%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -2.5%

Bogota FC (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Popayan face Bogota FC in Colombia - Primera B on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Popayan a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Bogota FC 29%, so Popayan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Popayan and 0.8 for Bogota FC (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Popayan are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Bogota FC. This match finished 1-2.

Popayan vs Bogota FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera B Predictions