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Leones FC vs Real Cartagena Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 22:00

Leones FC

PPG 0.78 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLL

1 – 6

FULL TIME

Real Cartagena

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-116.0%0-211.6%0-35.6%0-4+2.8%1 1-08.4%1-112.1%1-28.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-03.2%2-14.6%2-23.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.8%3-11.2%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.7% 27.0% 3.70 -5.2%

Draw 27.8% 32.3% 3.10 -8.3%

Away win 47.4% 51.3% 1.95 -7.6%

Over 2.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

Over 3.5 25.6% 25.3% 3.95 +0.7%

BTTS 47.2% 54.1% 1.85 -12.7%

Home O1.5 30.9% 29.0% 3.45 +6.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 46.5% 2.15 -12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-6

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob47.2%

A 47% / xG 0.8-1.4 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.0%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 0–2 11.6%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones FC0.8

Real Cartagena1.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES FC · PPG 0.78

REAL CARTAGENA · PPG 1.33

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.69 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Leones FC (H) 24.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.2%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.3%

Real Cartagena (A) 47.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones FC face Real Cartagena in Colombia - Primera B on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones FC a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Real Cartagena 47%, so Real Cartagena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Leones FC and 1.4 for Real Cartagena (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones FC are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.33 for Real Cartagena. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 1-6.

Leones FC vs Real Cartagena Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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