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Tigres FC vs Union Magdalena Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 20:00

Tigres FC

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Union Magdalena

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-114.6%0-29.2%0-33.8%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.4%1-113.1%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-04.7%2-15.8%2-23.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.4%3-11.7%3-21.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 24.4% 4.10 +23.8%

Draw 32.1% 34.7% 2.88 -7.5%

Away win 37.7% 51.3% 1.95 -26.5%

Over 2.5 42.4% 40.8% 2.45 +3.9%

Over 3.5 20.7% 22.2% 4.50 -4.1%

BTTS 47.2% 48.8% 2.05 -3.2%

Home O1.5 30.9% 25.0% 4.00 +23.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 43.5% 2.30 -15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob47.2%

D 32% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 0–1 14.6%

#4 1–0✓ 10.4%

#5 0–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tigres FC0.9

Union Magdalena1.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TIGRES FC · PPG 1.31

UNION MAGDALENA · PPG 1.82

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.36, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tigres FC (H) 30.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +23.8%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -7.5%

Union Magdalena (A) 37.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -26.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tigres FC face Union Magdalena in Colombia - Primera B on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tigres FC a 30% chance, the draw 32% and Union Magdalena 38%, so Union Magdalena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Tigres FC and 1.3 for Union Magdalena (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tigres FC are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.82 for Union Magdalena. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Tigres FC vs Union Magdalena Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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