Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Ruthin Town vs Mold Alexandra

Ruthin Town vs Mold Alexandra Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 19:00

Ruthin Town

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Mold Alexandra

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.2%0-24.9%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.3%1-111.3%1-27.7%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.0%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.5%3-14.7%3-23.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 37.0% 2.70 +13.9%

Draw 23.5% 30.8% 3.25 -14.2%

Away win 34.2% 45.5% 2.20 -24.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 62.5% 1.60 -4.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 41.2% 2.43 -10.8%

BTTS 60.0% 66.7% 1.50 -10.0%

Home O1.5 47.4% 46.1% 2.17 +2.9%

Away O1.5 40.9% 52.6% 1.90 -22.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.0%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 1–0 8.3%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ruthin Town1.6

Mold Alexandra1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RUTHIN TOWN · PPG 1.27

MOLD ALEXANDRA · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ruthin Town (H) 42.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +13.9%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.2%

Mold Alexandra (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ruthin Town face Mold Alexandra in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ruthin Town a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Mold Alexandra 34%, so Ruthin Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ruthin Town and 1.4 for Mold Alexandra (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ruthin Town are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.23 for Mold Alexandra. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 0-4.

Ruthin Town vs Mold Alexandra Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Wales - FAW Championship Predictions