Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Trethomas Bluebirds vs Afan Lido

Trethomas Bluebirds vs Afan Lido Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Trethomas Bluebirds

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Afan Lido

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.9%0-23.7%0-31.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.3%1-19.5%1-27.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.8%3-15.8%3-24.3%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.3%4+-23.2%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 47.6% 2.10 -8.4%

Draw 21.9% 26.3% 3.80 -10.1%

Away win 34.4% 36.4% 2.75 -5.4%

Over 2.5 64.2% 66.7% 1.50 -3.7%

Over 3.5 43.2% 45.7% 2.19 -5.4%

BTTS 63.1% 69.9% 1.43 -9.8%

Home O1.5 56.3% 59.5% 1.68 -5.4%

Away O1.5 43.0% 46.5% 2.15 -7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.1%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trethomas Bluebirds1.9

Afan Lido1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TRETHOMAS BLUEBIRDS · PPG 1.20

AFAN LIDO · PPG 0.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Trethomas Bluebirds (H) 43.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -8.4%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.1%

Afan Lido (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -5.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trethomas Bluebirds face Afan Lido in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trethomas Bluebirds a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Afan Lido 34%, so Trethomas Bluebirds are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Trethomas Bluebirds and 1.5 for Afan Lido (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trethomas Bluebirds are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.91 for Afan Lido. This match finished 5-2.

Trethomas Bluebirds vs Afan Lido Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Wales - FAW Championship Predictions