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Penrhyncoch vs Denbigh Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Penrhyncoch

PPG 1.16 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Denbigh Town

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.5%0-24.3%0-32.8%0-4+2.1%1 1-04.2%1-18.2%1-27.9%1-35.1%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.8%2-17.5%2-27.3%2-34.7%2-4+3.6%3 3-02.3%3-14.6%3-24.4%3-32.9%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-13.2%4+-23.1%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 25.6% 3.90 +36.5%

Draw 21.6% 26.7% 3.75 -11.4%

Away win 43.4% 59.9% 1.67 -27.5%

Over 2.5 68.2% 73.5% 1.36 -7.2%

Over 3.5 45.0% 50.8% 1.97 -11.3%

BTTS 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Home O1.5 53.0% 42.0% 2.38 +26.1%

Away O1.5 56.9% 69.4% 1.44 -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.1%

A 43% / xG 1.8-1.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2✓ 7.3%

#5 1–3 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Penrhyncoch1.8

Denbigh Town1.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PENRHYNCOCH · PPG 1.16

DENBIGH TOWN · PPG 1.21

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Penrhyncoch (H) 35.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +36.5%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.4%

Denbigh Town (A) 43.4%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Penrhyncoch face Denbigh Town in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Penrhyncoch a 35% chance, the draw 22% and Denbigh Town 43%, so Denbigh Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Penrhyncoch and 1.9 for Denbigh Town (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Penrhyncoch are averaging 1.16 points per game versus 1.21 for Denbigh Town. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +43.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Penrhyncoch vs Denbigh Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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