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Aberystwyth Town vs Llantwit Major Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:30

Aberystwyth Town

PPG 1.23 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWW

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Llantwit Major

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLL ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.7%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.0%1-18.5%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.9%3-17.5%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-17.3%4+-23.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.9% 71.4% 1.40 -9.1%

Draw 19.7% 25.0% 4.00 -12.7%

Away win 15.4% 15.4% 6.50 +0.1%

Over 2.5 62.9% 62.5% 1.60 +0.6%

Over 3.5 39.4% 42.9% 2.33 -8.2%

BTTS 54.7% 58.8% 1.70 -7.0%

Home O1.5 65.1% 70.4% 1.42 -7.6%

Away O1.5 25.7% 25.3% 3.96 +1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 65% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.5%

#4 3–0 7.9%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aberystwyth Town2.3

Llantwit Major0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ABERYSTWYTH TOWN · PPG 1.23

LLANTWIT MAJOR · PPG 1.02

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.36 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aberystwyth Town (H) 64.9%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -9.1%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -12.7%

Llantwit Major (A) 15.4%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aberystwyth Town face Llantwit Major in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aberystwyth Town a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Llantwit Major 15%, so Aberystwyth Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Aberystwyth Town and 0.9 for Llantwit Major (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aberystwyth Town are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.02 for Llantwit Major. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +20.6%. This match finished 5-1.

Aberystwyth Town vs Llantwit Major Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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