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Naft vs Duhok Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 15:30

Naft

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDD ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Duhok

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-110.2%0-24.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.5%1-113.0%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.3%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.0%3-13.6%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 42.0% 2.38 +8.3%

Draw 27.7% 34.5% 2.90 -11.8%

Away win 26.9% 34.7% 2.88 -13.5%

Over 2.5 43.2% 42.6% 2.35 +1.5%

Over 3.5 22.2% 23.8% 4.20 -4.1%

BTTS 47.2% 52.4% 1.91 -9.8%

Home O1.5 37.2% 37.3% 2.68 -0.3%

Away O1.5 25.7% 34.1% 2.93 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -61.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.5%

#2 1–1✓ 13.0%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Naft1.3

Duhok0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NAFT · PPG 1.67

DUHOK · PPG 1.28

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Naft (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +8.3%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.8%

Duhok (A) 26.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Naft face Duhok in Iraq - Iraqi League on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Naft a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Duhok 27%, so Naft are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Naft and 0.9 for Duhok (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Naft are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.28 for Duhok. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Naft vs Duhok Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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