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Al Kahrabaa vs Al-Karma Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 15:45

Al Kahrabaa

PPG 1.10 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDD ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Al-Karma

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-113.6%0-29.3%0-34.2%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.4%1-112.8%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.4%2-16.0%2-24.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.4%3-11.9%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.7% 27.8% 3.60 -0.2%

Draw 27.5% 31.3% 3.20 -7.2%

Away win 44.8% 52.4% 1.91 -14.4%

Over 2.5 44.8% 46.5% 2.15 -3.7%

Over 3.5 25.8% 26.2% 3.82 -0.9%

BTTS 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 29.9% 3.34 +3.2%

Away O1.5 40.9% 45.7% 2.19 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -61.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob49.2%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.8%

#2 0–1 13.6%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Kahrabaa0.9

Al-Karma1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KAHRABAA · PPG 1.10

AL-KARMA · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.42, combined xG 2.31 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Kahrabaa (H) 27.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.2%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.2%

Al-Karma (A) 44.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Kahrabaa face Al-Karma in Iraq - Iraqi League on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Kahrabaa a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Al-Karma 45%, so Al-Karma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Al Kahrabaa and 1.4 for Al-Karma (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Kahrabaa are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.36 for Al-Karma. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Al Kahrabaa vs Al-Karma Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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