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EC São Bernardo U20 vs Bandeirante U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 14 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

EC São Bernardo U20

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDD

UPCOMING

Bandeirante U20

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-17.2%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.2%1-111.5%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-19.2%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.4%3-14.9%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 66.7% 1.50 -18.3%

Draw 24.0% 25.6% 3.90 -3.8%

Away win 21.5% 19.0% 5.25 +7.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 54.1% 1.85 -6.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 38.5% 2.60 -15.2%

BTTS 48.0% 59.5% 1.68 -19.4%

Home O1.5 47.6% 63.3% 1.58 -24.8%

Away O1.5 20.3% 24.7% 4.05 -10.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.2%

#2 2–0 12.1%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

EC São Bernardo U201.6

Bandeirante U200.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EC SÃO BERNARDO U20 · PPG 0.67

BANDEIRANTE U20 · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

EC São Bernardo U20 (H) 54.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -18.3%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.8%

Bandeirante U20 (A) 21.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

EC São Bernardo U20 face Bandeirante U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives EC São Bernardo U20 a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Bandeirante U20 22%, so EC São Bernardo U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for EC São Bernardo U20 and 0.8 for Bandeirante U20 (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, EC São Bernardo U20 are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.67 for Bandeirante U20.

EC São Bernardo U20 vs Bandeirante U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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