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Mirassol U20 vs Ponte Preta U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 14 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Mirassol U20

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLD

UPCOMING

Ponte Preta U20

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+10.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-15.1%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.7%1-110.0%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.5%3-16.4%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-14.9%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.8% 52.4% 1.91 +10.4%

Draw 21.1% 29.4% 3.40 -17.0%

Away win 21.2% 30.3% 3.30 -18.0%

Over 2.5 54.7% 54.1% 1.85 +1.2%

Over 3.5 34.5% 36.0% 2.78 -4.1%

BTTS 52.9% 62.1% 1.61 -14.8%

Home O1.5 55.8% 51.8% 1.93 +7.7%

Away O1.5 24.6% 38.9% 2.57 -22.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 58% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 1–1 10.0%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mirassol U202.0

Ponte Preta U200.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.7% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MIRASSOL U20 · PPG 1.00

PONTE PRETA U20 · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mirassol U20 (H) 57.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +10.4%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -17.0%

Ponte Preta U20 (A) 21.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mirassol U20 face Ponte Preta U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mirassol U20 a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Ponte Preta U20 21%, so Mirassol U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Mirassol U20 and 0.9 for Ponte Preta U20 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mirassol U20 are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Ponte Preta U20. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +14.2%.

Mirassol U20 vs Ponte Preta U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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